BARL.PTS
DOMINICK BARLOW · PHI vs TBD · MAY 10
THE LINE7.5
4.5 above what he usually does
OPENED AT
7.5
HIS AVERAGE
3
L10 LOW
0
L10 HIGH
7
FADE TICKETNO. 214 / 352
UNDER 7.5@−110
TIMESTAMPED PRE-TIP · BEST OF 8 BOOKS
CASHED
FAIR-VALUE GAP
pts by game
his normal range
the line
what he got
THE LINE vs HIS AVERAGESET TOO HIGH
7.5 vs 3that's 4.5 above his average
HOW FAR ABOVE HIS NORMGOOD SPOT
+1.6levelsabove his usual
we bet 1.0+
we bet 1.0+
STAYED UNDER THE LINE IN13 OF 14
OUR CALLCONFIDENT
UNDERhe rarely gets there
THE READ
Vegas set his line at 7.5 pts, but he usually gets around 3. He beat that line in only 1 of his last 14 games. The number is set well above what he actually does, and he does not play the minutes to get there, so the model says under. Last time out he had 5 and the under cashed. The gap between the line and what he really does is the whole bet.
BUILT FROM OUR OWN 8-BOOK ODDS CAPTURE · THE LINE IS WHAT VEGAS SET · HIS AVERAGE IS WHAT HE ACTUALLY DOES · ENTERTAINMENT ONLY · 18+ · NOT A WAGER REC