AlphaLine looks for Kalshi player-prop lines set above what a player usually does and buys NO on Kalshi's main rung. Boards are small, usually 0 to 3 contracts a night, and a night with no pick is normal.
Forward test in progress · edge unproven on Kalshi · see the record →
Kalshi fade forward test
Paper · flat 1 unit per contract
Edge unproven
No graded legs yet.
Interim numbers are descriptive only. Real stakes need the frozen forward test to say GO.
The fade was validated on sportsbook main lines. Kalshi's mid-ladder rung is a stand-in for that line, so the Kalshi board has no established edge until its frozen forward test says GO. No win rate or ROI is claimed here.
Tonight
The Kalshi Fade Board.
alphaline, kalshi fade boardPaper · forward test
Live contracts · NO on Kalshi's main rung
No active picksThe board has no active pick on this slate.
The Rule
One frozen rule. No tuning.
01
Kalshi's Main Rung
For each player and stat (points, rebounds, assists, threes) the board reads Kalshi's own ladder and takes the rung priced closest to even.
4stat markets
02
Stretched Line
A contract qualifies only when that line sits well above the player's recent median, with role and minutes checks. The rule is frozen; nothing is refit during the test.
v2_mixedfrozen rule
03
Buy NO, Price Capped
The bet is NO at Kalshi's ask plus the taker fee. Anything costing more than 64.29c all-in (about -180) is skipped.
64.29call-in cost cap
04
Pulled When News Breaks
Injury reports are re-checked every 15 minutes before tip. A fresh Out or Doubtful, an NBA inactive, or too many teammates out withdraws the contract.
15 mininjury refresh
Forward Test
Graded in the open. Decided once.
Every contract that is live at tip counts, graded from Kalshi's own settlement at one flat unit of its all-in cost. The test ends at 150 graded legs or the last regular-season game of 2026-27, whichever comes first. Real stakes only if the 95% lower bound on ROI is above zero.
Rule and price cap frozen on 2026-10-21, before the first counted slate.
Sit-out nights count as slates with zero legs. No pick is a valid result.
Withdrawn-before-tip contracts are not counted and are listed separately.
Interim numbers below are descriptive and carry no GO or NO-GO weight.
Record so farInterim
No graded legs yet.
What You Can Check
Nothing Hidden.
⏰
Posted Before Tip-Off
Every contract is posted to Discord with its Kalshi ticker and a timestamp before the game starts. A started game is frozen.
🚫
Withdrawals Are Posted Too
When a player is ruled out or the price moves past the cap, the withdrawal is its own timestamped message.
⚖
Graded From Kalshi
Results come from Kalshi's settlement of the exact contract, not from a box-score reading of our own.
📉
Kalshi Only
No sportsbook odds feed into the board. Prices are Kalshi's ask plus the taker fee.
Pricing
Choose Your Access.
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#results recap after every slate, graded from Kalshi settlement
No credit card. Graded results are posted in #results after every slate.
02
Watch a few slates
See what gets posted, what gets withdrawn, and how each contract settles on Kalshi. Expect nights with no pick.
03
Decide for yourself
The edge on Kalshi is unproven until the forward test ends. Nothing here is a promise of profit.
FAQ
Common Questions.
NO on Kalshi's main rung for a player's points, rebounds, assists or threes, when that line is stretched above the player's recent median and costs 64.29c or less all-in (ask plus taker fee).
Kalshi lists mostly starters, and the rule only fires on stretched lines. Most nights the board has 0 to 3 contracts. A night with none is a valid result, not a failure.
The fade was validated on sportsbook main lines. Kalshi's rung is a stand-in for that line, so the Kalshi board's edge is not established until the frozen forward test reaches its endpoint and its ROI lower bound clears zero.
From Kalshi's own settlement of each contract. A hit pays 1 over the cost minus 1, a miss loses the stake, and an inactive player's fractional settlement counts in ROI at its value.
No. The board is Kalshi only: prices, rungs and settlement all come from Kalshi.
No. It is a statistical model being tested in public. Past results do not guarantee future results.
Free to Follow
Small boards. Some nights, none.
Follow the Kalshi fade forward test in Discord, slate by slate, graded from Kalshi settlement.
PropsPoints, rebounds, assists and threes, the four stats the Kalshi fade board covers. Open any line for its recent history, matchup and injury context.
View
Stat
Game
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◀
Pick a prop to inspect
Open any line to see the model, history, and context breakdown.
Deep Dive
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📈
Pick a trend to inspect
Open a trend to see form, context, and matchup detail.