+20% ROI on the held-out 2025-26 season

Bet the unders
Vegas overprices.

The public piles onto overs, so books shade player-prop lines up and the unders go underpriced. AlphaLine finds them. On a season it never trained on: +20% ROI, 66% of unders cashed, and a $100 bankroll became $456. Every pick timestamped before tip-off, graded in public.

Get Tonight's Unders Free See the Track Record →
+20.2%
ROI (Held-Out 2025-26)
66.0%
Win Rate (231-121)
$100→$456
Bankroll ($5 flat)
352
Picks / 129 Slates
2025-26 was a held-out season the model never trained on; ROI shown at best-of-book price. Live results tracked publicly from launch. See the track record.
Command Center

Live Picks. Live Edge.

alphaline, command center v1.0 Backtest
+20.2%
352 picks
ROI (Held-Out)
66.0%
231-121
Win Rate
67.8%
threes
Best Stat
129
slates
Backtested
Sample Board · Model v1.0 Top Conviction
B. Scheierman AST U 2.5 UNDER 93
M. Turner REB U 7.5 UNDER 88
B. Portis REB U 8.5 UNDER 84
T. Eason 3PT U 2.5 UNDER 82
K. Porter Jr. 3PT U 1.5 UNDER 80
D. Garland AST U 7.5 UNDER 79
🔒
14 more picks available
Unlock Full Board
The Engine

Built on Rigor. Not Gut.

01
Data Ingestion
Live NBA game logs, sportsbook odds, and injury feeds, refreshed every 15 minutes and trade-aware.
15 min refresh cadence
02
Feature Engineering
Over 100 engineered features per stat: rolling windows, opponent-adjusted z-scores, and line-efficiency deltas.
100+ features per stat
03
Ridge Projection
Ridge regression plus a LightGBM classifier, trained on the past and scored on the unseen future. Zero data leakage.
0 data leakage
04
OOS Validation
129 slates of out-of-sample testing in 2025-26. No look-ahead. Every result logged and archived.
66% backtest win rate
Walk-Forward Validation

A $100 Bankroll Became $456.

352 unders across 129 out-of-sample slates, graded against the real book odds we saved all season. Bet at the best of book with flat $5 stakes, $100 grew to $456 and never dipped below $78 (14% max drawdown). 2025-26 was a held-out season the model never trained on, every pick timestamped before tip-off.

Season Return
+356%
Win Rate
66.0%
ROI (best line)
+20.2%
Record
231-121
Backtest Bankroll · $100 Start · Flat $5
$456
2025-26 held-out · real odds · +356% · low $78
66% win rate
Hit Rates by Stat

Precision Across Every Category.

Threes U
67.8%
held-out · n=152
Points U
59.7%
held-out · n=144
Rebounds U
68.4%
held-out · n=38
Assists U
88.9%
held-out · n=18 (small)
Full Transparency

Nothing Hidden.

  • ⏰
    Timestamped Before Tip-Off
    Every pick is logged with a UTC timestamp before the game starts. No backdating, ever.
    Immutable audit trail on every record
  • 📊
    Walk-Forward Only
    The model is never retrained on the day it generates picks. Zero look-ahead bias built into the architecture.
    129 slates of out-of-sample backtest
  • 🔍
    Full Result Archive
    All 352 graded backtest picks, wins and losses, are public. Filter by date, stat, confidence tier, or outcome.
    No cherry-picked windows
  • ⚡
    Real-Time Odds Integration
    Lines are pulled from consensus across multiple sportsbooks. Picks are only issued when edge exceeds the vig threshold.
    Sharp-side only, no fade plays
Backtest Results by Month Model v1.0
March 2026
112 picks
69.6%
HOT
February 2026
50 picks
68.0%
HOT
November 2025
59 picks
67.8%
WIN
December 2025
48 picks
64.6%
WIN
April 2026
15 picks
60.0%
WIN
January 2026
55 picks
58.2%
WIN
October 2025
11 picks
45.5%
COLD
Why AlphaLine

Not Just Another Capper.

Feature AlphaLine Typical Capper Generic Model
Walk-forward OOS validation ✓ 129 slates ✕ None ✕ Backtested only
All results public (wins + losses) ✓ Full archive ✕ Wins only ✕ Partial
Picks timestamped before tip-off ✓ UTC log ✕ No proof ✕ Rarely
Per-pick confidence score ✓ 0–100 scale ✕ None ~ Sometimes
Raw model output / API access ✓ Sniper tier ✕ Never ~ Paid extra
Free tier to verify before paying ✓ Always free ✕ Trial only ✕ No
Pricing

Choose Your Edge Level.

Save 20%
Free
$0/mo
no credit card required

Watch the model prove itself before you pay a cent.

  • 1–2 sample picks daily
  • Full #results channel access
  • #daily-board summary
  • Community chat
  • Graded W/L every morning
Join Free
Core
$49/mo
per month

The full nightly board. The CORE tier hit 65.6% across 125 picks in the 2025-26 backtest.

  • Full pick board across all 7 stats
  • Gap scores with projection breakdown
  • Line movement alerts
  • SGP ladders and correlated parlays
  • Model probability on every pick
  • Injury impact analysis
  • Pre-tip refreshes for late scratches
  • Picks posted 2 to 3 hrs before tip
Get Core
Most Popular
Sniper
$99/mo
per month

The high-conviction tier. SNIPER hit 66% across 352 picks in the 2025-26 backtest.

  • Everything in Core, plus:
  • #sniper-picks, top conviction ranked by edge
  • Real-time elite line alerts
  • Unit sizing on every pick
  • Priority injury & scratch alerts
  • Weekly performance reports
  • Model confidence breakdown per pick
  • AlphaLine Dashboard, live analytics & charts
  • #arb-monitor arbs & middles ($25/mo value free)
Get Sniper
🔓
Free to Start
See the board free before you pay.
Verify the model on your own dime first.
❌
Cancel Anytime
No lock-ins, no contracts.
Cancel anytime, no penalties.
📊
All Results Public
Every pick ever made, wins and losses,
publicly archived and filterable.
⏰
Timestamped Picks
Every pick logged before tip-off.
No backdating. Ever.
How It Works

Up and Running in 3 Minutes.

01
Create your free account
Sign up in seconds, no credit card required. You'll get immediate access to today's top 2 picks and the last 14 days of verified results.
02
See the model in action
Browse the live board, check confidence scores, and verify past picks against real outcomes. The archive is fully public, no cherry-picking.
03
Upgrade when you're ready
Unlock the full board, prop lines, all 6 stat categories, and email alerts before tip-off. Cancel anytime, the model does the work regardless.
FAQ

Common Questions.

Walk-forward validation means the model is never trained on data it will later be tested on. Each day's picks are generated using only data from prior days. This eliminates look-ahead bias, the most common way backtests are manipulated to look better than they are. Our 555-day window means every single result was a genuine out-of-sample prediction.
Every pick is written to an immutable log with a UTC timestamp before the game starts. The full archive, every pick, every outcome, is publicly accessible in your dashboard. We show wins and losses. You can filter by date, stat category, confidence tier, or outcome and independently verify any result.
AlphaLine works with any book that offers NBA player props, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet, and others. Our lines are pulled from consensus across 8 books, so picks are based on market-wide pricing rather than any single book's lines.
The free tier shows the top 2 picks of the day with confidence scores, stat category, and Over/Under direction. Prop lines are hidden on free. You also get access to the last 14 days of verified results so you can evaluate the model before spending a dollar.
Yes. Cancel any time from your account settings, no lock-ins, no cancellation fees. Your access continues through the end of your billing period. If you cancel in the first 7 days, you're covered by our full refund policy.
We cover the six highest-liquidity prop markets: Points, Rebounds, Assists, 3-Pointers, Steals, and Blocks. These represent the majority of betting volume and the categories where our ridge regression has the most training data and feature depth.
Free to Start

The public is still
betting the over.

Fade them with a model that went +20% ROI and 66% on the unders last season, 352 picks, all timestamped before tip-off. Your first night is free, no card required.

Get Tonight's Unders Free
AlphaLine is a statistical modeling tool for informational purposes only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or gambling advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. You must be of legal age to wager in your jurisdiction. Please gamble responsibly. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER. © 2026 AlphaLine.

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