A fade board for Kalshi player props.
AlphaLine looks for NBA player-prop lines on Kalshi that sit well above what a player usually does, and buys NO on Kalshi's main rung. It runs one frozen rule on an automated pipeline. No touts, no gut calls, no hand-picks.
Boards are small: usually 0 to 3 contracts a night, because Kalshi lists mostly starters and the rule only fires on stretched lines. A night with no pick is a normal, valid result. Every contract is posted with its Kalshi ticker before tip-off, and every withdrawal is posted too.
How the board works
Five steps run on every slate, through the day until tip-off.
Kalshi's main rung
For each player and stat (points, rebounds, assists, threes) the board reads Kalshi's own ladder and takes the rung priced closest to even. That rung stands in for the main line.
Stretched line
A contract qualifies only when that line sits well above the player's recent median, by a stat-specific threshold, with role and minutes checks. The rule (v2_mixed) is frozen: nothing is refit during the test.
Buy NO, price capped
The bet is NO at Kalshi's ask plus the taker fee. Anything costing more than 64.29c all-in (about -180) is skipped.
Pulled when news breaks
Injury reports are re-checked every 15 minutes before tip. A fresh Out or Doubtful, an NBA inactive, a late scratch, too many teammates out, a closed market or a price past the cap withdraws the contract, and the withdrawal is posted.
Graded from Kalshi
Every contract that is live at tip is graded from Kalshi's own settlement, at one flat unit of its all-in cost. A started game is frozen; nothing is removed after tip.
What is proven, and what is not
The fade was validated on sportsbook main lines. Kalshi's mid-ladder rung is a stand-in for that line, so the Kalshi board has no established edge. That is decided by a frozen forward test, not by a backtest.
The test ends at 150 graded legs or the last regular-season game of 2026-27, whichever comes first. Real stakes only if the 95% lower bound on ROI is above zero. Until then the board is paper, and interim numbers on the forward-test record are descriptive only.
See it for yourself
The fastest way to judge AlphaLine is to watch a few slates: what gets posted, what gets withdrawn, and how each contract settles on Kalshi. The Discord is free. Expect nights with no pick.