Responsible Play & Not Financial Advice

AlphaLine is a statistics product, not a sportsbook and not an advisor. Read this page before you act on anything we publish. It is the most important thing on this site.

AlphaLine Is Not a Sportsbook

AlphaLine does not accept, place, hold, or pay out wagers, and we never handle your money. We publish statistical projections and analysis for NBA player props. Any wager you decide to make is entirely your own decision, placed with a third party of your choosing, at your own risk. We are an information and entertainment product, nothing more.

Projections Are Estimates, Not Guarantees

Every number we publish is a statistical estimate produced by a model. Models are wrong all the time. A projection that a player is likely to go over or under a line is a probability, not a promise. Even a strong edge loses on any given night. No projection, pick, or analysis from AlphaLine is a guarantee of any outcome, and you can lose money following any of them.

Past Performance Does Not Predict Future Results

When we share performance numbers, we lead with the honest context:

• Our 2025-26 held-out evaluation (the model was never trained on that season) produced a 66.0% win rate, +20.2% ROI, across 352 picks over 129 slates. A held-out evaluation is the most honest historical signal we have, but it is still historical. It reflects how the model did on past data under specific conditions, and it can overstate what happens going forward.
• Our live results are tracked publicly from launch. Historical win rates and current live results are separate. The live board is the ongoing test.

We share both because honesty matters. Past results, whether held-out evaluation or live, do not predict future results. Do not assume any historical win rate will repeat, and do not size your money as if profit is expected.

Never Bet More Than You Can Afford to Lose

Treat any money you put at risk as money you are prepared to lose completely. Set a budget before you start, and stick to it. Never gamble with money you need for rent, food, bills, debt, savings, or anyone who depends on you. Never chase losses by increasing your bets to "win it back," and never borrow money to gamble.

Sports Betting Carries Real Financial Risk

Sports betting is a form of gambling. The house holds a built-in mathematical edge, most bettors lose money over time, and there is no system, model, or service (including this one) that removes that risk. The financial risk is real and the losses can be significant. Go in clear-eyed.

This Is Not Financial or Investment Advice

Nothing on AlphaLine is financial, investment, tax, legal, or professional advice. Our projections are not recommendations to wager, and a wager is not an investment. We are not your advisor, broker, or fiduciary. If you want advice tailored to your situation, speak with a qualified, licensed professional.

Know the Signs of Problem Gambling

Gambling can stop being entertainment and become a problem. Warning signs include:

• Betting more money or more often than you intended, or being unable to stop.
• Chasing losses, or betting to "get even" or to escape stress, anxiety, or low mood.
• Lying to family or friends about how much you bet or how much you have lost.
• Spending money you need for essentials, or borrowing or stealing to gamble.
• Feeling restless, irritable, or anxious when you try to cut back or stop.
• Gambling damaging your relationships, work, sleep, finances, or mental health.

If any of these sound familiar, please reach out for support today.

Where to Get Help

• National Problem Gambling Helpline: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), available 24/7, free and confidential.
• National Council on Problem Gambling: ncpgambling.org for resources, screening tools, and local referrals.
• Gamblers Anonymous: gamblersanonymous.org for free peer support meetings, in person and online.

Many sportsbooks and states also offer self-exclusion programs and deposit, time, and loss limits. Use them if you need them.

You Must Be of Legal Age

You must be at least 18 years old to use AlphaLine. Where the legal age for sports wagering in your jurisdiction is higher (often 21), you must meet that higher age before acting on any projection in connection with wagering. Sports betting is not legal everywhere. You are responsible for knowing and following the laws that apply to you.

Questions

If you have questions about responsible play or anything on this page, reach out through our Discord community. Please play responsibly.