Questions, answered straight.
No spin. Here is what the Kalshi fade board does, what is and is not proven, and what we will not promise you. If something is missing, ask in the Discord.
What is AlphaLine? Is it a sportsbook or an exchange?
AlphaLine is a statistical model for NBA player props on Kalshi. It is not a sportsbook or an exchange and you do not trade here. The board posts the Kalshi contracts its rule selects; you place any trades yourself on Kalshi.
What does the board bet?
NO on Kalshi's main rung for a player's points, rebounds, assists or threes, when that line is stretched above the player's recent median and costs 64.29c or less all-in (ask plus taker fee).
More detail on the rule is on the How It Works page.
Do you use sportsbook odds?
No. The board is Kalshi only: rungs, prices and settlement all come from Kalshi.
How is injury news handled?
Injury reports are re-checked every 15 minutes before tip. A fresh Out or Doubtful, an NBA inactive, a late scratch, or too many teammates out withdraws a contract, and the withdrawal is posted in Discord.
Does it have an edge on Kalshi?
Not established. The fade was validated on sportsbook main lines, and Kalshi's rung is only a stand-in for that line. The Kalshi board's edge is unproven until the frozen forward test says GO.
How does the forward test work?
Every contract that is live at tip counts and is graded from Kalshi's settlement at one flat unit of its all-in cost. The test ends at 150 graded legs or the last regular-season game of 2026-27, whichever comes first. It is GO only if the 95% lower bound on ROI is above zero.
Interim numbers on the forward-test record are descriptive and carry no GO or NO-GO weight.
What happened to the old track record?
It was a backtest of the retired sportsbook model, not a live record, so it has been archived. No win rate or ROI from it is quoted for the Kalshi board.
Do you guarantee a profit?
No. No honest model can, and this one has no established edge yet. Even a real edge loses plenty of individual nights.
Please read Responsible Play before risking money.
How many picks are posted per night?
Usually 0 to 3. Kalshi lists mostly starters and the rule only fires on stretched lines. A night with no pick is a valid result, not a failure.
When are picks posted?
Before tip-off, in #daily-board, each with its Kalshi ticker and a timestamp. A started game is frozen; a contract pulled before tip gets its own withdrawal post.
Is there a free tier?
Yes. The Discord is free to join, and graded results are posted in #results after every slate. Join at discord.gg/ZggXCsDDRd.
How much does it cost?
Current plans are on the Pricing section of the homepage.
Where do I get help?
The Discord is the best place for questions and support: discord.gg/ZggXCsDDRd.
Still have a question?
The community and the team are in Discord.