The NFL model, graded in public.

Every rule we use, every rule we track, and every rule we killed, with its record at real Kalshi prices. Only one strategy is allowed to carry money. Everything else is logged with its price before kickoff and graded after, until it earns a promotion or gets retired.

Scoreboard

Results at the price we logged, after Kalshi's taker fee. CLV = the kickoff price of our side minus the price we logged (positive means the market moved our way). The 90% range is a bootstrap that resamples whole games.

This week's card

What the model produced for each game. LIVE tickets need a human approval and a fresh pre-kickoff gate check before any money moves. PAPER legs are logged, never staked.

Rule registry

Promotion from PAPER to LIVE needs at least 100 graded bets, a 90% range above zero, positive results in both halves of the sample, and no rule edits along the way.